As Hurricane Season Picks up, Key Forecasting Tool Access Set to End

A week ago, U.S. National Hurricane Center forecasters accurately predicted Hurricane Erick would explode in intensity as it hit Mexico’s Pacific coastline. Now, key tools that helped inform that outlook will go away by the end of this month, and it’s unclear if a replacement will be available as the Atlantic moves deeper into what’s expected to be an unusually active hurricane season.

The U.S. Navy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will no longer accept and distribute readings from the long-running Defense Meteorological Satellite Program after June 30, according to a service notice.

One of its top applications is helping forecasters accurately predict whether a storm is going to rapidly intensify — that is, when top wind speeds increase at least 35 miles (56 kilometers) per hour over a 24-hour period. When weak storms suddenly strengthen, they can endanger coastal residents and add stress for emergency managers trying to allocate limited resources.

In recent years, many storms have undergone rapid intensification, notably last year’s Hurricane Milton. That storm spun up from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale in just over a day. While Milton weakened to a Category 3 storm as it made landfall last October, other storms have intensified right up until landfall. The includes last year’s deadly Hurricane John, which dropped nearly 57 inches (145 centimeters) of rain on parts of Mexico. Research suggests tropical systems will be far more likely to become powerful hurricanes through rapid intensification as the world continues to warm.

The Defense Meteorological Satellite Program data — which has been available to researchers and weather bureaus around the world — helps the NHC look inside storms while other satellites only look at “at cloud-top level,” said retired NOAA meteorologist Alan Gerard.

The defense satellite readings have helped forecasters detect storms undergoing eyewall replacement, a process similar to a snake shedding its skin. As it unfolds, storms may weaken briefly while growing larger in size.

“That is an important process, to know that is happening,” Gerard said. “It stops the rapid intensification. It puts the brake on.”

After the eyewall replacement cycle, though, intensification can pick up again.

Equipment in the military satellite program — which launched its first satellite in 1962 — has been nearing the end of its useful life. The Navy began operating a replacement weather satellite this year, but it’s not clear if federal forecasters have access to the data.

Military officials did not respond to a request for comment. NOAA hadn’t responded at the time of publication.

Top photo: Damaged homes and flooding following the passage of Hurricane Erick in Chacahua, Oaxaca state, Mexico on June 19. Photographer: Carlo Echegoyen/AFP/Getty Images.

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