There is a lot of expectations from Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the general budget of the country to be presented on February 1. Everyone’s eyes will be on relief by making much awaited for the middle class. Some important figures are going to be monitored in this budget. It is to be seen what steps the government announces in the budget that can prove to be helpful in improving economic data. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present her 8th consecutive budget.
Fiscal deficit
For the current financial year (April 2024 to March 2025 or FY 25), the fiscal deficit in the budget, which is the difference between government expenditure and income, is estimated at 4.9 percent of the GDP. According to the fiscal consolidation roadmap, the deficit is to be reduced by 4.5 percent of the GDP in FY 26. The market will keep a close watch on the loss data of the financial year 2026.
Capital expenditure
The government’s employed capital expenditure for the current financial year is Rs 11.1 lakh crore. However, due to the Lok Sabha elections, slow government expenditure in the first four months delayed the capital expenditure cycle and the final figures for the current financial year are expected to be less than the budget. In the budget of FY 2026, the pace of capital expenditure is also expected to continue.
Loan roadmap
According to PTI news, the Finance Minister had said in his 2024-25 budget speech that the fiscal policy beyond 2026-27 would have to maintain the fiscal deficit in such a way that the central government’s loan is declining as a percentage of GDP. . The market will closely monitor the loan integration roadmap from FY 2027 to see when the Finance Minister drops the general government loan-GDP to a target of 60 percent. The general government debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024 was 85 percent, including 57 percent of the central government’s loan.
Borrow
The government’s gross borrowed budget in FY 2025 was Rs 14.01 lakh crore. The government borrows from the market to meet its fiscal deficit. The market will be monitored on the loan number, especially due to less dividend than RBI in FY 2026, while in FY 2025 it was Rs 2.11 lakh crore.
Tax revenue
Gross tax revenue was estimated at Rs 38.40 lakh crore in the budget of 2024-25, which is an increase of 11.72 percent as compared to FY 2024. It has Rs 22.07 lakh crore from direct taxes (personal income tax + corporate tax) and indirect taxes (limit Rs 16.33 lakh crore is estimated to come from fee + excise + GST).
GST
The Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in 2024-25 is estimated to increase by 11 percent to 10. 62 lakh crore rupees. The GST revenue estimates of FY 2026 will be monitored as the revenue growth has been slow in the last three months in the current financial year.
nominal GDP
India’s nominal GDP growth in FY 2025 (real GDP plus inflation) is estimated to be 10. 5 percent, while the actual GDP growth estimated by NSO is 6.4 percent. The budget will give an idea about inflation in the next financial year from the nominal GDP growth estimates of FY 2026.
Dividend
The government has projected to get Rs 2.33 lakh crore from RBI and financial institutions in FY 2025 and Rs 56,260 crore from CPSE as dividends. These two major non-tax revenue numbers will be monitored in the budget estimates of FY 2026.
Disinvestment and asset mudification
Miscellaneous capital receipts’ – which includes income from disinvestment and asset mudification, was estimated at Rs 50,000 crore in the budget of FY 2025. The budget of FY 2026 will be given a number and a comprehensive asset mudification roadmap for next year.
